BMI View: Germany’s macroeconomic environment will continue to be favourable for drugmakers and
healthcare operators through 2016. Buoyant private consumption and higher public expenditure, brought
about by migrant/refugee accommodation and social security payments, will appeal to multinational
drugmakers. Furthermore, in order to mitigate Germany’s dire demographics and growing social security
spending brought about by an ageing population, there has been a broader trend in the introduction of
novel and costly therapies in Germany, leading us to revise upwards our pharmaceuticals market forecast
for 2016.
Headline Expenditure Projections
? Pharmaceuticals: EUR46.50bn (USD51.15bn) in 2015 to EUR47.10bn (USD50.40bn) in 2016; 1.3% in
local currency terms and -1.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter.
? Healthcare: EUR326.08bn (USD358.69bn) in 2015 to EUR335.11bn (USD358.56bn) in 2016; +2.8% in
local currency terms and -0.04% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with last quarter.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Germany 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 11
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2012-2020) 13
Healthcare Market Forecast 14
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2012-2020) 16
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2012-2020) 17
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2012-2020) 17
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 18
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2012-2020) 19
Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-2010 (EURbn) 19
Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-2010 (Packages, ms) 20
Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-2010 (Average Price per Pack, EUR) 20
Patented Drug Market Forecast 21
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2012-2020) 23
Generic Medicine Market Forecast 24
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2012-2020) 26
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 27
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2012-2020) 28
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Germany 2014-2020) 30
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Germany 2014-2020) 31
Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Index 32
Western Europe Risk/Reward Index 32
Germany Risk/Reward Index 37
Rewards 37
Risks 37
Regulatory Review 39
Intellectual Property Regime 41
Pricing Regime 42
Reimbursement Regime 46
Market Overview 48
Healthcare Sector 48
Table: Healthcare Resources (Germany 2010-2015) 51
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Germany 2010-2015) 51
Table: Healthcare Activity (Germany 2010-2015) 52
Research & Development 52
Clinical Trials 58
Epidemiology 59
Competitive Landscape 61
Research-Based Industry 61
Table: Multinational Market Activity 63
Pharmaceutical Distribution 64
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector 64
Company Profile 66
Bayer Health Care 66
Boehringer Ingelheim 71
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) 76
Merck KGaA 79
Pfizer 83
STADA Arzneimittel 86
Demographic Forecast 90
Demographic Outlook 90
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Germany 1990-2025) 91
Table: Key Population Ratios (Germany 1990-2025) 91
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Germany 1990-2025) 92
Table: Population By Age Group (Germany 1990-2025) 92
Table: Population By Age Group % (Germany 1990-2025) 93
Glossary 95
Methodology 97
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model 97
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model 97
Notes On Methodology 98
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 99
Index Overview 100
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators 100
Indicator Weightings 101

List of Tables

Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Germany 2014-2020)
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2012-2020)
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2012-2020)
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2012-2020)
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2012-2020)
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2012-2020)
Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-2010 (EURbn)
Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-2010 (Packages, ms)
Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-2010 (Average Price per Pack, EUR)
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2012-2020)
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2012-2020)
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2012-2020)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Germany 2014-2020)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Germany 2014-2020)
Table: Healthcare Resources (Germany 2010-2015)
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Germany 2010-2015)
Table: Healthcare Activity (Germany 2010-2015)
Table: Multinational Market Activity
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Germany 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Germany 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Germany 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Germany 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Germany 1990-2025)
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators