BMI View: Krka’s exposure to Eastern European markets will continue to act as a drag on revenue growth.
However, strong sales growth in Western Europe will mitigate the impact of revenue declines for the short
term. We expect a continued focus on cost containment by European healthcare payers to moderate Krka’s
growth outlook over the longer term, unless the company looks to geographically diversify its exposure.
Headline Expenditure Projections
? Pharmaceuticals: EUR671mn (USD745mn) in 2015 to EUR645mn (USD690mn) in 2016; -3.9% in
local currency terms and -7.3% in US dollar terms. Forecasts revised downwards compared to previous
quarter.
? Healthcare: EUR3.22bn (USD3.58bn) in 2015 to EUR3.25bn (USD3.48bn) in 2016; 0.9% in local
currency terms and -2.8% in US dollar terms. Forecasts revised slightly downwards compared to
previous quarter.
BMI Risk/Reward Index
Slovenia scores 56.0 out of a total of 100 in our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index for Q216, up to 9th
place from 11th place in the previous quarter. Slovenia scores above the average for the region, which is
52.6.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Slovenia 2014-2020) 8
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 11
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020) 13
Healthcare Market Forecast 14
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020) 16
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020) 16
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020) 17
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 18
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020) 20
Patented Drug Market Forecast 21
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020) 23
Generic Drug Market Forecast 24
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020) 25
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 26
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020) 28
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2014-2020) 31
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Slovenia 2014-2020) 31
Industry Risk/Reward Index 32
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index 32
Slovenia Risk/Reward Index 38
Rewards 38
Risks 38
Regulatory Review 40
Intellectual Property Issues 41
Pricing Regime 41
Reimbursement Regime 43
Market Overview 45
Healthcare Sector 46
Table: Healthcare Resources (Slovenia 2010-2015) 50
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Slovenia 2010-2015) 50
Table: Healthcare Activity (Slovenia 2010-2015) 51
Research & Development 51
Clinical Trials 51
Epidemiology 52
Competitive Landscape 55
Research-Based Industry 55
Table: Table: Multinational Market Activity 55
Generic Drugmakers 56
Company Profile 59
Krka 59
Lek (Novartis/Sandoz) 64
Demographic Forecast 68
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Slovenia 1990-2025) 69
Table: Key Population Ratios (Slovenia 1990-2025) 69
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Slovenia 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group (Slovenia 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group % (Slovenia 1990-2025) 71
Glossary 73
Methodology 75
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model 75
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model 75
Notes On Methodology 76
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 77
Index Overview 78
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators 78
Indicator Weightings 79

List of Tables

Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Slovenia 2014-2020)
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020)
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020)
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020)
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020)
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020)
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020)
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020)
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2014-2020)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Slovenia 2014-2020)
Table: Healthcare Resources (Slovenia 2010-2015)
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Slovenia 2010-2015)
Table: Healthcare Activity (Slovenia 2010-2015)
Table: Table: Multinational Market Activity
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Slovenia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Slovenia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Slovenia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Slovenia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Slovenia 1990-2025)
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators