Slovenia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2016
BMI View: Krka’s exposure to Eastern European markets will continue to act as a drag on revenue growth.
However, strong sales growth in Western Europe will mitigate the impact of revenue declines for the short
term. We expect a continued focus on cost containment by European healthcare payers to moderate Krka’s
growth outlook over the longer term, unless the company looks to geographically diversify its exposure.
Headline Expenditure Projections
? Pharmaceuticals: EUR671mn (USD745mn) in 2015 to EUR645mn (USD690mn) in 2016; -3.9% in
local currency terms and -7.3% in US dollar terms. Forecasts revised downwards compared to previous
quarter.
? Healthcare: EUR3.22bn (USD3.58bn) in 2015 to EUR3.25bn (USD3.48bn) in 2016; 0.9% in local
currency terms and -2.8% in US dollar terms. Forecasts revised slightly downwards compared to
previous quarter.
BMI Risk/Reward Index
Slovenia scores 56.0 out of a total of 100 in our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index for Q216, up to 9th
place from 11th place in the previous quarter. Slovenia scores above the average for the region, which is
52.6.
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Slovenia 2014-2020) 8
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 11
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020) 13
Healthcare Market Forecast 14
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020) 16
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020) 16
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020) 17
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 18
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020) 20
Patented Drug Market Forecast 21
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020) 23
Generic Drug Market Forecast 24
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020) 25
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 26
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020) 28
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2014-2020) 31
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Slovenia 2014-2020) 31
Industry Risk/Reward Index 32
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index 32
Slovenia Risk/Reward Index 38
Rewards 38
Risks 38
Regulatory Review 40
Intellectual Property Issues 41
Pricing Regime 41
Reimbursement Regime 43
Market Overview 45
Healthcare Sector 46
Table: Healthcare Resources (Slovenia 2010-2015) 50
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Slovenia 2010-2015) 50
Table: Healthcare Activity (Slovenia 2010-2015) 51
Research & Development 51
Clinical Trials 51
Epidemiology 52
Competitive Landscape 55
Research-Based Industry 55
Table: Table: Multinational Market Activity 55
Generic Drugmakers 56
Company Profile 59
Krka 59
Lek (Novartis/Sandoz) 64
Demographic Forecast 68
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Slovenia 1990-2025) 69
Table: Key Population Ratios (Slovenia 1990-2025) 69
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Slovenia 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group (Slovenia 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group % (Slovenia 1990-2025) 71
Glossary 73
Methodology 75
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model 75
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model 75
Notes On Methodology 76
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 77
Index Overview 78
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators 78
Indicator Weightings 79
List of Tables
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Slovenia 2014-2020)
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020)
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020)
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020)
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020)
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020)
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020)
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020)
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2020)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2014-2020)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Slovenia 2014-2020)
Table: Healthcare Resources (Slovenia 2010-2015)
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Slovenia 2010-2015)
Table: Healthcare Activity (Slovenia 2010-2015)
Table: Table: Multinational Market Activity
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Slovenia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Slovenia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Slovenia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Slovenia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Slovenia 1990-2025)
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators