BMI View: Fiscal loosening by the newly-initiated Socialist-led government in Portugal and rising private
consumption will benefit pharmaceutical sales in 2016. According to the latest data on market activity we
have revised upwards our pharmaceutical market forecast, although operating challenges will remain due
to high levels of debt in the public hospital sector. Meanwhile, with competitiveness to diminish due to the
partial reversal of austerity measures, we do not see major room for Portuguese industrial sectors to
become more attractive to investors in the near term, including the pharmaceutical sector. That said, longterm
demand for healthcare due to an ageing population will keep translating into the need for access to
medical treatment, supporting market growth over the forecast period.
Headline Expenditure Projections
? Pharmaceuticals: EUR3.43bn (USD4.59bn) in 2014 to EUR3.44bn (USD3.78bn) in 2015; 0.3% in local
currency and -17.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter in local currency
terms and US dollar terms.
? Healthcare: EUR16.07bn (USD21.53bn) in 2014 to EUR15.82bn (USD17.41bn) in 2015; 0.3% in local
currency and -17.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter in local currency
terms and US dollar terms.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Portugal 2013-2019) 7
SWOT 10
Industry Forecast 12
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 12
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Portugal 2011-2019) 14
Healthcare Market Forecast 15
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Portugal 2011-2019) 18
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts 18
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts 19
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 19
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Portugal 2011-2019) 21
Patented Drug Market Forecast 22
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Portugal 2011-2019) 24
Generic Drug Market Forecast 25
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Portugal 2011-2019) 27
Table: Top Generic Drugs By Value In 2011 27
Table: Average Price Of Top Generic Drugs By Value 2010-2011 28
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 29
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Portugal 2011-2019) 31
Table: OTC Sales Outside Of Pharmacies By Therapeutic Group (Jan-Sep 2012) 32
Table: OTC Sales Outside Of Pharmacies By District (Jan-Sep 2012) 32
Table: OTC Sales Outside Of Pharmacies By Sales Outlet (Jan-Sep 2012) 33
Table: Portugal OTC Sales Outside Of Pharmacies By Active Ingredient (Jan-Sep 2012) 33
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 34
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Portugal 2013-2019) 37
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Portugal 2013-2019) 37
Industry Risk/Reward Index 38
Western Europe Risk/Reward Index 38
Portugal Risk/Reward Index 44
Rewards 44
Risks 45
Regulatory Review 46
Regulatory Regime 46
Intellectual Property Issues 48
Pricing Regime 49
Reimbursement Regime 51
Pharmacoeconomics 52
Market Overview 54
Healthcare Sector 55
Table: Healthcare Resources (Portugal 2009-2014) 55
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Portugal 2009-2014) 55
Table: Healthcare Activity (Portugal 2009-2014) 56
Clinical Trials 56
Epidemiology 57
Competitive Landscape 59
Research-Based Industry 59
Generic Drugmakers 59
Table: Table: Multinational Market Activity 60
Pharmaceutical Distribution 60
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector 61
Table: Number Of Pharmaceutical Companies, Wholesalers, Pharmacies, Pharmacy Extensions And Drug Stores In Portugal 64
Company Profile 65
Hovione 65
Bial 69
Medinfar 73
Bluepharma 76
Demographic Forecast 80
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Portugal 1990-2025) 81
Table: Key Population Ratios (Portugal 1990-2025) 81
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Portugal 1990-2025) 82
Table: Population By Age Group (Portugal 1990-2025) 82
Table: Population By Age Group % (Portugal 1990-2025) 83
Glossary 85
Methodology 87
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model 87
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model 87
Notes On Methodology 88
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 89
Index Overview 90
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators 90
Indicator Weightings 91

List of Tables

Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Portugal 2013-2019)
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Portugal 2011-2019)
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Portugal 2011-2019)
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Portugal 2011-2019)
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Portugal 2011-2019)
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Portugal 2011-2019)
Table: Top Generic Drugs By Value In 2011
Table: Average Price Of Top Generic Drugs By Value 2010-2011
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Portugal 2011-2019)
Table: OTC Sales Outside Of Pharmacies By Therapeutic Group (Jan-Sep 2012)
Table: OTC Sales Outside Of Pharmacies By District (Jan-Sep 2012)
Table: OTC Sales Outside Of Pharmacies By Sales Outlet (Jan-Sep 2012)
Table: Portugal OTC Sales Outside Of Pharmacies By Active Ingredient (Jan-Sep 2012)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Portugal 2013-2019)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Portugal 2013-2019)
Table: Healthcare Resources (Portugal 2009-2014)
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Portugal 2009-2014)
Table: Healthcare Activity (Portugal 2009-2014)
Table: Table: Multinational Market Activity
Table: Number Of Pharmaceutical Companies, Wholesalers, Pharmacies, Pharmacy Extensions And Drug Stores In Portugal
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Portugal 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Portugal 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Portugal 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Portugal 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Portugal 1990-2025)
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators