BMI View: Nigeria’s prospects of attaining national health coverage will largely depend upon the success
of the National Health Act. This, however, will continue to face a number of challenges that have previously
led to delays in its implementation. The eventual rollout of the act will make Nigeria an attractive prospect
for multinational drugmakers over the long-term, though political and fiscal barriers limit the successful
likelihood of its implementation and subsequent investment opportunities.
Headline Expenditure Projections
? Pharmaceuticals: NGN175.90bn (USD891mn) in 2015 to NGN187.33bn (USD905mn) in 2016; +6.5%
in local currency terms and +1.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter.
? Healthcare: NGN3.97trn (USD20.08bn) in 2015 to NGN4.43trn (USD21.41bn) in 2016; +11.7% in
local currency terms and +6.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 12
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 12
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2020) 14
Healthcare Market Forecast 15
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2020) 17
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2020) 17
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2020) 18
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 19
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2020) 20
Patented Drug Market Forecast 21
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2020) 22
Generic Drug Market Forecast 23
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2020) 24
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 25
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2020) 27
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2020) 30
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Nigeria 2014-2020) 30
Industry Risk Reward Index 31
Middle East and Africa Risk/Reward Index - Q2 2016 31
Nigeria Risk/Reward Index 38
Rewards 38
Risks 39
Regulatory Review 40
Intellectual Property Issues 42
Pricing Regime 44
Reimbursement Regime 44
Market Overview 45
Healthcare Sector 46
Table: Healthcare Resources (Nigeria 2010-2015) 46
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Nigeria 2010-2015) 47
Table: Healthcare Activity (Nigeria 2010-2015) 47
Research & Development 54
Clinical Trials 54
Epidemiology 56
Competitive Landscape 58
Research-Based Industry 58
Table: Multinational Market Activity 62
Pharmaceutical Distribution & Retail Sector 63
Company Profile 66
GlaxoSmithKline 66
Fidson Healthcare 69
May & Baker 72
Merck & Co 75
Neimeth Pharmaceuticals 77
Demographic Forecast 80
Demographic Outlook 80
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Nigeria 1990-2025) 81
Table: Key Population Ratios (Nigeria 1990-2025) 81
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Nigeria 1990-2025) 82
Table: Population By Age Group (Nigeria 1990-2025) 82
Table: Population By Age Group % (Nigeria 1990-2025) 83
Glossary 85
Methodology 87
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model 87
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model 87
Notes On Methodology 88
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 89
Index Overview 90
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators 90
Indicator Weightings 91

List of Tables

Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2020)
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2020)
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2020)
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2020)
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2020)
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2020)
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2020)
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2020)
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2020)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2020)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Nigeria 2014-2020)
Table: Healthcare Resources (Nigeria 2010-2015)
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Nigeria 2010-2015)
Table: Healthcare Activity (Nigeria 2010-2015)
Table: Multinational Market Activity
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Nigeria 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Nigeria 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Nigeria 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Nigeria 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Nigeria 1990-2025)
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators