BMI View: Drugmaker revenue earning opportunities in Kenya will continue to be restricted. Some
progress has been made towards addressing equity challenges, but universal coverage – and subsequently a
decline in the reliance of out-of-pocket spending – will not be achieved unless the country adopts a systemic
approach to health financing reforms.
Headline Expenditure Projections
? Pharmaceuticals: KES73.35bn (USD746mn) in 2015 to KES83.84bn (USD797mn) in 2016; 14.3%
growth in local currency terms and 6.8% in US dollar terms.
• Healthcare: KES212.59bn (USD2.16bn) in 2015 to KES237.32bn (USD2.26bn) in 2016; 11.6% growth
in local currency terms and 4.3% in US dollar terms.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Kenya 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 10
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2020) 11
Healthcare Market Forecast 12
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2020) 13
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2020) 14
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2020) 14
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 15
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2020) 16
Patented Drug Market Forecast 17
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2020) 18
Generic Drug Market Forecast 19
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2020) 20
OTC Medicines Market Forecast 21
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2020) 22
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 23
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2014-2020) 24
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Kenya 2014-2020) 25
Industry Risk Reward Index 26
Middle East and Africa Risk/Reward Index - Q2 2016 26
Kenya Risk/Reward Index 33
Rewards 33
Risks 34
Regulatory Review 35
Intellectual Property Issues 36
Pricing & Reimbursement Regime 36
Market Overview 38
Healthcare Sector 38
Table: Healthcare Resources (Kenya 2010-2015) 40
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Kenya 2010-2015) 40
Table: Healthcare Activity (Kenya 2010-2015) 41
Research & Development 47
Clinical Trials 48
Epidemiology 50
Competitive Landscape 52
Research-Based Industry 52
Table: Multinational Market Activity 53
Pharmaceutical Distribution 54
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector 56
Company Profile 57
GlaxoSmithKline 57
Merck & Co 60
Novartis 62
Pfizer 65
Sanofi 68
Demographic Forecast 70
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kenya 1990-2025) 71
Table: Key Population Ratios (Kenya 1990-2025) 71
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Kenya 1990-2025) 72
Table: Population By Age Group (Kenya 1990-2025) 72
Table: Population By Age Group % (Kenya 1990-2025) 73
Glossary 75
Methodology 77
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model 77
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model 77
Notes On Methodology 78
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 79
Index Overview 80
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators 80
Indicator Weightings 81

List of Tables

Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Kenya 2014-2020)
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2020)
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2020)
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2020)
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2020)
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2020)
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2020)
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2020)
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2020)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2014-2020)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Kenya 2014-2020)
Table: Healthcare Resources (Kenya 2010-2015)
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Kenya 2010-2015)
Table: Healthcare Activity (Kenya 2010-2015)
Table: Multinational Market Activity
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kenya 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Kenya 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Kenya 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Kenya 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Kenya 1990-2025)
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators