BMI View: The Venezuelan government remains committed to its optimistic outlook despite growing
political tension and growing volatility within the country’s economy. This clash will keep Venezuela’s
inflationary pressures on a soaring trajectory, as pharmaceutical and health market expenditure growth in
real terms remain negative despite the bolivar continuing to grow. Drugmakers and health companies will
continue to experience severely negative exchange rates, compounded by an increasingly unstable country
outlook, hampering investment and revenue-generating opportunities for years to come.
Headline Expenditure Projections
? Pharmaceuticals: VEB51.0bn (USD8.1bn) in 2014 to VEB63.1bn (USD2.2bn) in 2015; +23.7% in local
currency terms and -73.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast has been revised downward from Q315 due to
updated macroeconomic considerations, reflecting real market growth.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Political 11
Economic . 12
Operational Risk 13
Industry Forecast 15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2011-2019) 17
Healthcare Market Forecast 18
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2011-2019) 19
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2011-2019) 20
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2011-2019) 20
Prescription Market Forecast 21
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2011-2019) 22
Patented Drug Market Forecast . 23
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2011-2019) 24
Generic Drug Market Forecast 25
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2011-2019) 26
OTC Market Forecast 27
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2011-2019) 28
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast . 29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2013-2019) 32
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Venezuela 2013-2019) 32
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 33
Macroeconomic Forecasts 34
Economic Analysis 34
Table: Venezuela - Private Consumption Forecasts 35
Table: Venezuela - Government Consumption Forecasts 36
Table: Venezuela - Fixed Investment Forecasts 36
Table: Venezuela - Net Exports Forecasts 38
Industry Risk Reward Indices 39
Americas Risk/Reward Index - Q4 2015 39
Venezuela Risk/Reward Index 45
Rewards . 45
Risks 45
Market Overview 47
Industry Trends And Developments 48
Epidemiology 48
Healthcare Sector . 50
Table: Healthcare Resources (Venezuela 2009-2014) 53
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Venezuela 2009-2014) 53
Table: Healthcare Activity (Venezuela 2009-2014) 54
Research And Development 56
Regulatory Development 59
Intellectual Property 59
Biologics And Biosimilars . 63
Pricing Regime 63
Reimbursement Regime . 65
Competitive Landscape . 66
Research-Based Industry 66
Generic Drugmakers . 68
Pharmaceutical Distribution 68
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector 70
Company Profile 72
Boehringer Ingelheim 72
Calox International . 74
Elmor 76
GlaxoSmithKline 79
Grupo Farma 82
Merck & Co 85
Novartis 88
Pfizer 91
Sanofi 94
Strides Latina (Sumifarma) . 96
Demographic Forecast 98
Demographic Outlook 2015 98
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Venezuela 1990-2025) 99
Table: Key Population Ratios (Venezuela 1990-2025) 99
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Venezuela 1990-2025) 100
Table: Population By Age Group (Venezuela 1990-2025) 100
Table: Population By Age Group % (Venezuela 1990-2025) 101
Glossary . 103
Methodology 105
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model 105
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model 105
Notes On Methodology 106
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 107
Index Overview 108
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators 108
Indicator Weightings 109

List of Tables

Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2011-2019)
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2011-2019)
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2011-2019)
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2011-2019)
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2011-2019)
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2011-2019)
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2011-2019)
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2011-2019)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2013-2019)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Venezuela 2013-2019)
Table: Venezuela - Private Consumption Forecasts
Table: Venezuela - Government Consumption Forecasts
Table: Venezuela - Fixed Investment Forecasts
Table: Venezuela - Net Exports Forecasts
Table: Healthcare Resources (Venezuela 2009-2014)
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Venezuela 2009-2014)
Table: Healthcare Activity (Venezuela 2009-2014)
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Venezuela 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Venezuela 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Venezuela 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Venezuela 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Venezuela 1990-2025)
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators