BMI View: Roche’s restructuring efforts within its manufacturing network are indicative of deep pipeline
shifts. Tailored manufacturing capability will support the company’s established biosimilar defence strategy
as it prepares itself for erosion of key product revenues to begin in 2018. As part of an industry-wide trend,
we expect to see further traditional small-molecule plants being decommissioned and investment being put
into increasing in-house biologics capabilities.
Headline Expenditure Projections
? Pharmaceuticals: CHF7.06bn (USD7.71bn) in 2014 to CHF7.07bn (USD7.27bn) in 2015; +0.10% in
local currency terms and -5.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast stayed flat compared to last quarter.
? Healthcare: CHF70.49bn (USD77.02bn) in 2014 to CHF71.88bn (USD73.89bn) in 2015; +2.0% growth
in local currency terms and -4.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised slightly downwards from last
quarter.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (2013-2019) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 11
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Switzerland 2011-2019) 13
Healthcare Market Forecast 13
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Switzerland 2011-2019) 15
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Switzerland 2011-2019) 16
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Switzerland 2011-2019) 16
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 17
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Switzerland 2011-2019) 18
Patented Drug Market Forecast 19
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Switzerland 2011-2019) 20
Generic Drug Market Forecast 21
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Switzerland 2011-2019) 22
OTC Medicine Forecast 23
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Switzerland 2011-2019) 24
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 25
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Switzerland 2013-2019) 26
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Switzerland 2013-2019) 26
Industry Risk/Reward Index 27
Western Europe Risk/Reward Index 27
Switzerland Risk/Reward Index 33
Rewards 33
Risks 33
Regulatory Review 35
Intellectual Property Issues 35
Pricing Regime 35
Reimbursement Regime 36
Market Overview 38
Healthcare Sector 39
Table: 2013 & 2014: Health Insurance Premiums 40
Table: Healthcare Resources (Switzerland 2009-2014) 41
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Switzerland 2009-2014) 41
Table: Healthcare Activity (Switzerland 2009-2014) 42
Research And Development 42
Clinical Trials 43
Epidemiology 44
Competitive Landscape 46
Research-Based Industry 46
Table: Table: Multinational Market Activity 47
Drugmakers 48
Retail 48
Company Profile 50
Novartis 50
Roche 54
GlaxoSmithKline 58
Demographic Forecast 60
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Switzerland 1990-2025) 61
Table: Key Population Ratios (Switzerland 1990-2025) 61
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Switzerland 1990-2025) 62
Table: Population By Age Group (Switzerland 1990-2025) 62
Table: Population By Age Group % (Switzerland 1990-2025) 63
Glossary 65
Methodology 67
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model 67
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model 67
Notes On Methodology 68
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 69
Index Overview 70
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators 70
Indicator Weightings 71

List of Tables

Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (2013-2019)
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Switzerland 2011-2019)
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Switzerland 2011-2019)
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Switzerland 2011-2019)
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Switzerland 2011-2019)
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Switzerland 2011-2019)
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Switzerland 2011-2019)
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Switzerland 2011-2019)
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Switzerland 2011-2019)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Switzerland 2013-2019)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Switzerland 2013-2019)
Table: 2013 & 2014: Health Insurance Premiums
Table: Healthcare Resources (Switzerland 2009-2014)
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Switzerland 2009-2014)
Table: Healthcare Activity (Switzerland 2009-2014)
Table: Table: Multinational Market Activity
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Switzerland 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Switzerland 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Switzerland 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Switzerland 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Switzerland 1990-2025)
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators