BMI View: Non-communicable conditions such as cardiovascular disease and cancer will continue to be the
primary contributors to Lithuania’s disease burden. Although these disease dynamics will make the country
attractive to innovative drugmakers, the small size of the country’s population will limit the commercial
opportunity. The absolute disease burden is expected to decline over the next 15 years as the standard of
healthcare improves and the population contracts.
Headline Expenditure Projections
? Pharmaceuticals: EUR601mn (USD806mn) in 2014 to EUR618mn(USD680mn) in 2015; +2.7% in
local currency terms and -15.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from Q215.
? Healthcare: EUR2.14bn (USD2.87bn) in 2014 to EUR2.15bn (USD2.36bn) in 2015; +0.3% in local
currency terms and -17.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from Q215.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Political 11
Economic . 12
Operational Risk 13
Industry Forecast 14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019) 15
Healthcare Market Forecast 16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019) 17
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019) 17
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019) 18
Prescription Drug Market Forecast . 19
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019) 20
Patented Drug Market Forecast . 21
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019) 22
Generic Drug Market Forecast 23
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019) 24
OTC Market Forecast 25
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019) 26
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast . 27
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2013-2019) 28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Lithuania 2013-2019) 29
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 29
Macroeconomic Forecasts 30
Economic Analysis 30
Industry Risk Reward Indices 36
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index - Q4 2015 36
Lithuania Risk/Reward Index . 42
Rewards . 42
Risks 42
Market Overview 44
Industry Trends And Developments 46
Epidemiology 46
Table: Leading Causes of Death, 2005-2013 47
Table: Cancer Incidence Rates, 2012-2035 49
Communicable Diseases 50
Table: Incidence of HIV & AIDS, 2002-2010 51
Healthcare System . 51
Healthcare Provision . 51
Table: Healthcare Resources (Lithuania 2009-2014) 52
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Lithuania 2009-2014) 52
Table: Healthcare Activity (Lithuania 2009-2014) 53
Healthcare Funding 53
Healthcare Insurance . 54
Research & Development . 54
Clinical Trials . 56
Regulatory Development 58
Regional Harmonisation 59
Pharmaceutical Advertising . 60
Intellectual Property Regime 61
Pricing Regime 62
Table: Wholesale Mark-Ups For Reimbursed And Non-Reimbursed Medicines 63
Reimbursement Regime . 64
Table: Retail Mark-Ups For Reimbursed And Non-Reimbursed Medicines 65
Competitive Landscape . 66
Pharmaceutical Industry 66
Table: Members of the Association of Manufacturers of Drugs (VGA), 2013 66
Research-Based Industry 67
Table: Members of the Innovative Pharmaceutical Industry Association (IFPA) 68
Generic Drugmakers . 68
Recent Company Developments 69
Pharmaceutical Wholesale 69
Pharmaceutical Retail 70
Table: Pharmacies, 2000-2012 71
Company Profile 73
Valentis 73
Sanitas (Valeant) 75
Sicor Biotech (Teva) 78
GlaxoSmithKline 81
Pfizer 84
Novartis 86
Merck & Co 88
Sanofi 90
Demographic Forecast 92
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Lithuania 1990-2025) 93
Table: Key Population Ratios (Lithuania 1990-2025) 93
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Lithuania 1990-2025) 94
Table: Population By Age Group (Lithuania 1990-2025) 94
Table: Population By Age Group % (Lithuania 1990-2025) 95
Glossary 97
Methodology 99
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model 99
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model 99
Notes On Methodology 100
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 101
Index Overview 102
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators 102
Indicator Weightings 103

List of Tables

Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2011-2019)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Lithuania 2013-2019)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Lithuania 2013-2019)
Table: Leading Causes of Death, 2005-2013
Table: Cancer Incidence Rates, 2012-2035
Table: Incidence of HIV & AIDS, 2002-2010
Table: Healthcare Resources (Lithuania 2009-2014)
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Lithuania 2009-2014)
Table: Healthcare Activity (Lithuania 2009-2014)
Table: Wholesale Mark-Ups For Reimbursed And Non-Reimbursed Medicines
Table: Retail Mark-Ups For Reimbursed And Non-Reimbursed Medicines
Table: Members of the Association of Manufacturers of Drugs (VGA), 2013
Table: Members of the Innovative Pharmaceutical Industry Association (IFPA)
Table: Pharmacies, 2000-2012
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Lithuania 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Lithuania 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Lithuania 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Lithuania 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Lithuania 1990-2025)
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators