BMI View: The development of Latvia’s market will be shaped by an increased emphasis on generic drugs;
an implication of fiscal austerity measures. As a result, despite its transparent regulatory policies and
business-friendly operating environment, the Latvian pharmaceutical market will continue to remain a
modest prospect for drugmakers. Exports will also be impacted by regional tensions.
Headline Expenditure Projections
? Pharmaceuticals: EUR319mn (USD428mn) in 2014 to EUR338mn (USD372mn) in 2015; +5.8% in
local currency terms and -13.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from previous quarter.
? Healthcare: EUR970mn (USD1.30bn) in 2014 to EUR1.01bn (USD1.11bn) in 2015; +4.0% in local
currency terms and -14.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged on previous quarter.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Latvia 2013-2019) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 11
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2011-2019) 12
Healthcare Market Forecast 13
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2011-2019) 15
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2011-2019) 15
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2011-2019) 15
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 16
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2011-2019) 18
Patented Drug Market Forecast 18
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2011-2019) 20
Generic Drug Market Forecast 20
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2011-2019) 22
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 22
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2011-2019) 24
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 24
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2013-2019) 26
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Latvia 2013-2019) 26
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Risk/Reward Index 27
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index - Q1 2016 27
Latvia Risk/Reward Index 34
Rewards 34
Risks 34
Regulatory Review 36
Regional Collaboration 37
Intellectual Property 38
Pricing Regime 38
Reimbursement Regime 40
Market Overview 42
Market Overview 42
Epidemiology 43
Table: Leading Causes of Death, 1990-2010 43
Table: New Cases of Cancer, 2004-2010 45
Table: Cumulative Reported Cases of HIV and AIDS, 2000-2010 47
Healthcare Sector 47
Healthcare Sector Funding 48
Healthcare Provision 49
Table: Healthcare Resources (Latvia 2009-2014) 49
Table: Hospitals & Beds, 2006-2010 50
Table: Hospital Beds by Specialty, 2004-2010 50
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Latvia 2009-2014) 52
Table: Healthcare Activity (Latvia 2009-2014) 52
Research & Development 52
Biotechnology 53
Clinical Trials 55
Competitive Landscape 56
Research-Based Industry 56
Table: Licences Issued To Companies Engaged In Pharmaceutical Manufacturing And Distribution, 2007-2011 56
Table: Medicines Consumption According To Marketing Authorisation Holders (turnover in LVL) 57
Table: Table: Multinational Market Activity 58
Generic Drugmakers 59
Pharmaceutical Distribution 59
Table: Wholesale Mark-Up Scheme For Reimbursable Pharmaceuticals, 2008 60
Table: Wholesalers Market Share, 2010 (%) 62
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector 62
Table: Pharmacy Mark-Up Scheme For Reimbursable Pharmaceuticals, 2008 63
Table: Licences Issued To Pharmacies 64
Company Profile 66
Grindeks 66
Olainfarm 70
Demographic Forecast 74
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Latvia 1990-2025) 75
Table: Key Population Ratios (Latvia 1990-2025) 75
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Latvia 1990-2025) 76
Table: Population By Age Group (Latvia 1990-2025) 76
Table: Population By Age Group % (Latvia 1990-2025) 77
Glossary 79
Methodology 81
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model 81
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model 81
Notes On Methodology 82
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 83
Index Overview 84
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators 84
Indicator Weightings 85

List of Tables

Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Latvia 2013-2019)
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2011-2019)
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2011-2019)
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2011-2019)
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2011-2019)
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2011-2019)
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2011-2019)
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2011-2019)
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2011-2019)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Latvia 2013-2019)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Latvia 2013-2019)
Table: Leading Causes of Death, 1990-2010
Table: New Cases of Cancer, 2004-2010
Table: Cumulative Reported Cases of HIV and AIDS, 2000-2010
Table: Healthcare Resources (Latvia 2009-2014)
Table: Hospitals & Beds, 2006-2010
Table: Hospital Beds by Specialty, 2004-2010
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Latvia 2009-2014)
Table: Healthcare Activity (Latvia 2009-2014)
Table: Licences Issued To Companies Engaged In Pharmaceutical Manufacturing And Distribution, 2007-2011
Table: Medicines Consumption According To Marketing Authorisation Holders (turnover in LVL)
Table: Table: Multinational Market Activity
Table: Wholesale Mark-Up Scheme For Reimbursable Pharmaceuticals, 2008
Table: Wholesalers Market Share, 2010 (%)
Table: Pharmacy Mark-Up Scheme For Reimbursable Pharmaceuticals, 2008
Table: Licences Issued To Pharmacies
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Latvia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Latvia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Latvia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Latvia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Latvia 1990-2025)
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators