BMI View: The shift in the pharmaceutical landscape due to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) will be
negative for the Indian generic drug industry. Collectively accounting for 40% of medicine exports from
India, the 12 member markets of the TPP will see stronger patent protection and longer regulatory data
protection. This coupled with the introduction of a patent linkage system will serve to deter the introduction
of Indian generic drugs and curtail their overall growth.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: INR1,066bn (USD16bn) in 2015 to INR1,191bn (17bn) by 2016; +11.7% in local
currency terms and 6.4% in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: INR5,716bn (USD88bn) in 2015 to INR6,395bn (USD94bn) by 2016; +11.9% in local
currency terms and 6.6% in US dollar terms.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (India 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 11
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2020) 13
Healthcare Market Forecast 14
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2020) 16
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2020) 17
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2020) 17
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 18
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2020) 19
Patented Drug Market Forecast 20
Table: Selected Patent Developments Affecting Drugmakers 21
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2020) 23
Generic Drug Market Forecast 24
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2020) 25
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 26
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2020) 27
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (India 2014-2020) 29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (India 2014-2020) 30
Industry Risk Reward Index 31
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Index 31
India Risk/Reward Index 37
Rewards 37
Risks 37
Regulatory Review 38
Intellectual Property Issues 42
Table: History Of The Indian Patent System 43
Table: A Series Of Setbacks For Innovative Pharmaceutical Firms 44
Pricing Regime 48
Market Overview 53
Healthcare Sector 53
Table: Healthcare Resources (India 2010-2015) 56
Table: Healthcare Personnel (India 2010-2015) 56
Table: Healthcare Activity (India 2010-2015) 57
Clinical Trials 59
Epidemiology 61
Table: Estimated Number Of New Cases Of Cancer In India 63
Competitive Landscape 64
Research-Based Industry 64
Table: Ordinary Members Of OPPI 64
Table: Multinational Market Activity 65
Generic Drug Industry 66
Pharmaceutical Distribution 66
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector 68
Company Profile 69
Aurobindo Pharmaceutical 69
Cipla 72
Dr. Reddy's Laboratories 76
GlaxoSmithKline 80
Merck & Co 84
Novartis 87
Pfizer 91
Sanofi India 96
Sun Pharmaceutical 99
Demographic Forecast 101
Table: Population Headline Indicators (India 1990-2025) 102
Table: Key Population Ratios (India 1990-2025) 102
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (India 1990-2025) 103
Table: Population By Age Group (India 1990-2025) 103
Table: Population By Age Group % (India 1990-2025) 104
Glossary 106
Methodology 108
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model 108
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model 108
Notes On Methodology 109
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 110
Index Overview 111
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators 111
Indicator Weightings 112

List of Tables

Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (India 2014-2020)
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2020)
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2020)
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2020)
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2020)
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2020)
Table: Selected Patent Developments Affecting Drugmakers
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2020)
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2020)
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2020)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (India 2014-2020)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (India 2014-2020)
Table: History Of The Indian Patent System
Table: A Series Of Setbacks For Innovative Pharmaceutical Firms
Table: Healthcare Resources (India 2010-2015)
Table: Healthcare Personnel (India 2010-2015)
Table: Healthcare Activity (India 2010-2015)
Table: Estimated Number Of New Cases Of Cancer In India
Table: Ordinary Members Of OPPI
Table: Multinational Market Activity
Table: Population Headline Indicators (India 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (India 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (India 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (India 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (India 1990-2025)
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators