BMI View: Bulgaria’s healthcare sector is in need of reform to improve its efficiency; however, it is likely
to see spending cuts as the government must enforce strong cost-saving measures to reduce the budget
deficit. Such controls to healthcare spending will produce a bleak outlook for pharmaceutical and
healthcare providers.
Headline Expenditure Projections
? Pharmaceuticals: BGN2.71bn (USD1.52bn) in 2015 to BGN2.89bn (USD1.58bn) in 2016; +6.7% in
local currency terms and +3.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged compared to the previous
quarter.
? Healthcare: BGN6.30bn (USD3.53bn) in 2015 to BGN6.56bn (USD3.58bn) in 2016; +4.1% in local
currency terms and +1.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged compared to the previous quarter.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Bulgaria 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 11
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020) 12
Healthcare Market Forecast 13
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020) 15
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020) 16
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020) 16
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 17
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020) 18
Patented Drug Market Forecast 19
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020) 20
Generic Drug Market Forecast 21
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020) 23
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 24
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020) 25
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 26
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2014-2020) 28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Bulgaria 2014-2020) 28
Industry Risk/Reward Index 29
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index 29
Bulgaria Risk/Reward Index 35
Rewards 35
Risks 36
Regulatory Review 37
Intellectual Property Issues 39
Pricing Regime 40
Reimbursement Regime 43
Market Overview 46
Healthcare Sector 47
Table: Healthcare Resources (Bulgaria 2010-2015) 48
Table: Healthcare Resources (Bulgaria 2010-2015) 48
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Bulgaria 2010-2015) 48
Table: Healthcare Activity (Bulgaria 2010-2015) 49
Table: NHIF Budget, 2014 53
Table: Bulgarian National Health Insurance Fund Revenues (BGN 000s), 2015 53
Research & Development 54
Table: Members Of ARPharM, 2014 54
Clinical Trials 55
Table: Cancer Incidence Rates, 2012-2035 58
Competitive Landscape 59
Research-Based Industry 59
Table: Multinational Market Activity 59
Generic Drugmakers 60
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector 61
Wholesale Sector 62
Table: Pharmaceutical Wholesale And Retail Market, 2009-2012 63
Company Profile 64
Sopharma 64
Demographic Forecast 68
Demographic Outlook 68
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Bulgaria 1990-2025) 69
Table: Key Population Ratios (Bulgaria 1990-2025) 69
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Bulgaria 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group (Bulgaria 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group % (Bulgaria 1990-2025) 71
Glossary 73
Methodology 75
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model 75
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model 75
Notes On Methodology 76
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 77
Index Overview 78
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators 78
Indicator Weightings 79

List of Tables

Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Bulgaria 2014-2020)
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2014-2020)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Bulgaria 2014-2020)
Table: Healthcare Resources (Bulgaria 2010-2015)
Table: Healthcare Resources (Bulgaria 2010-2015)
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Bulgaria 2010-2015)
Table: Healthcare Activity (Bulgaria 2010-2015)
Table: NHIF Budget, 2014
Table: Bulgarian National Health Insurance Fund Revenues (BGN 000s), 2015
Table: Members Of ARPharM, 2014
Table: Cancer Incidence Rates, 2012-2035
Table: Multinational Market Activity
Table: Pharmaceutical Wholesale And Retail Market, 2009-2012
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators