BMI View: Bahrain’s government will continue in its attempts at containing the rapidly expanding cost of
healthcare. Private sector engagement and increasing generic substitution will continue to be employed,
although government spending on the sector will continue to increase given its importance in social
stability. The uptake of compulsory health insurance and increased government spending will continue to
drive growth within the pharmaceutical market, with drugmakers viewing Bahrain as a small, but attractive
market.
Headline Expenditure Projections
? Pharmaceuticals: BHD122mn (USD324mn) in 2014 to BHD131mn (USD347mn) in 2015; +7.2% in
both local currency and US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter.
? Healthcare: BHD586mn (USD1.55bn) in 2014 to BHD635mn (USD1.69bn) in 2015; +8.5% in both
local currency and US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Political 11
Economic 13
Operational Risk 14
Industry Forecast 16
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 16
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bahrain 2011-2019) 18
Healthcare Market Forecast 18
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bahrain 2011-2019) 20
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bahrain 2011-2019) 20
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bahrain 2011-2019) 20
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 21
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bahrain 2011-2019) 22
Patented Drug Market Forecast 23
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bahrain 2011-2019) 24
Generic Drug Market Forecast 25
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bahrain 2011-2019) 26
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 27
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Bahrain 2011-2019) 28
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Bahrain 2013-2019) 30
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Bahrain 2013-2019) 31
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 32
Macroeconomic Forecasts 33
Economic Analysis 33
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts - Brent 34
Table: Bahrain - Real Gdp Growth, % Chg Y-O-Y 37
Expenditure Breakdown 37
Table: Bahrain - Main Infrastructure And Industrial Developments 40
Industry Risk Reward Indices 41
Middle East and Africa Risk/Reward Index - Q4 2015 41
Bahrain Risk/Reward Index 48
Rewards 48
Risks 48
Market Overview 50
Industry Trends And Developments 51
Epidemiology 51
Non-Communicable Diseases 52
Healthcare Sector 53
Healthcare Sector Developments 54
Healthcare Provision 54
Table: Ministry Of Health's Objectives 55
Health Insurance 55
Health Insurance For Expatriates 56
Table: National Health Insurance Scheme Breakdown 56
Healthcare Sector Investment 57
Information Technology In Healthcare 58
Research And Development 58
Clinical Trials 59
Regulatory Development 60
GCC Harmonisation 61
GCC Unified Drug Pricing System 61
Healthcare For Expatriates 62
Intellectual Property Regime 63
Counterfeit Medicines 63
Pricing And Reimbursement Regime 64
Public Sector Procurement 65
Free Trade Agreements 65
Competitive Landscape 68
Pharmaceutical Industry 68
Domestic Industry 68
Pharmaceutical Industry Developments 69
Pharmaceutical Retail 70
Company Profile 71
Al-Jishi Corporation 71
Bahrain Industrial Pharmaceutical Co (Bidapharm) 73
Behzad Medical Establishment 75
GlaxoSmithKline 77
Johnson & Johnson 79
Merck & Co 81
Novartis 83
Pfizer 86
Sanofi 88
Yousuf Mahmood Husain Company 90
Demographic Forecast 92
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Bahrain 1990-2025) 93
Table: Key Population Ratios (Bahrain 1990-2025) 93
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Bahrain 1990-2025) 94
Table: Population By Age Group (Bahrain 1990-2025) 94
Table: Population By Age Group % (Bahrain 1990-2025) 95
Glossary 97
Methodology 99
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model 99
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model 99
Notes On Methodology 100
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 101
Index Overview 102
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators 102
Indicator Weightings 103